WASHINGTON -- Two rather amazing but almost entirely overlooked major-newspaper headlines appeared last week that ought to shake us out of our national lassitude.
The first, on the front page of the Financial Times, was: "China to overtake U.S. as top economic power this year."
Whaaat? Yes, it meant what it said, and the Times is a deeply serious paper. "The U.S. is on the brink of losing its status as the world's largest economy," the lead read, "and is likely to slip behind China this year, sooner than widely expected, according to the world's leading statistical agencies."
Two days later, another serious paper, The Wall Street Journal, headlined on Page one: "Americans Want to Pull Back From World Stage, Poll Finds." (Note: Headlines have been written here exactly as the papers published them.)
"Americans in large numbers want the U.S. to reduce its role in world affairs," said the article, "even as a showdown with Russia over Ukraine preoccupies Washington, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds."
Now, a cynic or a smart-aleck might immediately respond with something like, "Great! Then everything will work fine!" Or, once again, they all deserve one another."
But in fact, these articles, which I have not seen reprinted in any of the other papers I read daily, if accurate in intent as well as information, are deeply important, particularly at this historic moment and in this increasingly dangerous era.
We have been hearing about America's "decline" for at least the last three years. In some groups, it has become a drumbeat. BOOM BOOM BOOM ... America can't lead anymore ... BOOM BOOM BOOM .. America can't win wars anymore ...
But many of these concerns were simply personal pique over U.S. foreign policy or lack of investment at home, whereas these two articles border on the scary.
The Financial Times, for instance, points out that America has been the global leader "since overtaking the U.K. (United Kingdom) in 1872. Most economists previously thought China would pull ahead in 2019." The article is based upon special data on what money can buy in different countries, by the International Comparison Program of the World Bank.
In 2005, the program measured China's economy as less than half the size of the United States' -- yet the last research, in 2011, put China's gross domestic product at 87 percent of ours.
When you consider again the Journal article, the questions that surround world leadership, the creation of wealth and the feelings of the American population become ever more complex. The Journal notes that it is "a marked change from past decades" that nearly half of Americans surveyed in the news poll want the U.S. to be less active on the global stage; and that fewer than one-fifth are calling for more active engagement, which turns out to be an "anti-interventionist current that sweeps across party lines."
The 47 percent of respondents who opted for a less-active role in world affairs announced a new America, the poll findings said, with a larger share against involvement overseas than in similar polling in 2001, 1997 and 1995. This was further backed up by polls by the Pew Research Center last year, which stated that a record 53 percent said that the U.S. "should mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along as best they can, compared with 41 percent in 1995 and 20 percent in 1964."
One could go into endless, complicated detail on the "whys" of both China apparently about to push ahead of the U.S. as the top economic power and of Americans sick and tired of being expected to be world leader, but it is probably best to keep both simple.
The fact is that most Americans never wanted to be an empire. It's not in the Yankee DNA. The America I have known is one that understood better how to be an example to the world. Our brand of democracy, the form and nature of our historical institutions and of our Constitution, and our faith in education, research and science have been the banners which the world have banded together to learn from us.
World War II was not, despite the unfortunate belief of many Americans, an event that could be repeated every few years. Our victory (painful), our military and political leadership (brilliant), and our reconstituting a new Germany and a new Japan after the war (virtually unknown across history) -- all were a once-in-500-years experience.
Yet ambitious political and military leaderships attempted to refight World War II in wholly inappropriate places. We lost not only our innocence fighting vicious wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan; we also lost our economic leadership, our exemplary position among the world of nations and our faith in ourselves.
That is why Americans prefer to stay home now -- and it would be even better if we wanted to build some bridges and highways while we're at it. Meanwhile, the Chinese, ever so intense about making money and building a nation, are rapidly coming out ahead of us. We must think through the serious business of rebuilding America.
Me? I would have paid our debts to the Chinese long ago and worked to be independent again. I'm happy Americans are through with the horribly destructive "intervention" of the last 50 years. Let's intervene only when our interests really are at risk.
Let's stay home and build bridges.