BEIJING -- If you want an insight into Chinese foreign policy, just look at its maps. Since President Xi Jinping took office in 2012, state-owned bookshops have begun selling vertical oblong maps that look rather different from previous ones. The new maps put the South China Sea in the center, rather than showing it in an inset. The border, which encompasses the entire sea, looks like a long tongue extending from the continent. The intimidating maps are a visualization of China's challenge to the U.S. strategy of "Pivot to Asia."
The military has historically played a key role in geographical surveys and map-making in China. The People's Liberation Army General Staff Department is involved in demarcating border areas. The maps are printed at military printing plants.
"Maps that show islands in the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands (the Chinese name for the Senkaku Islands) in one picture were a sign that the Xi leadership will take an aggressive policy in nearby waters. Establishing an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) was also planned from an early stage," a Chinese Communist Party source said. The source emphasized the government's departure from "Tao guang yang hui" (hide one's abilities and keep a low profile), the foreign policy adopted by Chinese leaders until Xi's immediate predecessor Hu Jintao.
Since his visit to the U.S. in June last year, Xi has been obsessed with forming a "new model of major-power relations" with the country. The bottom line is that Beijing wants Washington to recognize China's sovereignty. China apparently aims to start pushing against the U.S.-centered world order and extend its influence to the Pacific Ocean.
China established the ADIZ over the East China Sea last November, seizing its opportunity after National Security Adviser Susan Rice indicated for the first time that the U.S. would accept major-power relations with China several days earlier.
Sensing China's ambition, the U.S. promptly sent strategic bombers to the East China Sea and ignored the unilaterally declared ADIZ. In a statement issued after a bilateral strategic and economic dialogue in July, President Barack Obama refrained from using the term "major-power relations" but only mentioned a "new model of relations." Professor Shi Yinhong of Renmin University of China said the two countries have neither a new model of relations nor major-power relations.
China began drilling for oil near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea in May. The action led to clashes between Chinese and Vietnamese vessels and widespread anti-China protests in Vietnam. Some watchers wondered why the Chinese leader keeps making provocations. A CCP source said Xi wanted to see how committed the U.S. is to its "Pivot to Asia" policy.
Chinese military aircraft's close passes at a U.S. patrol plane in August were proof that Xi has not given up the ADIZ over the South China Sea. Officials are walking a fine line to follow Xi's instruction that they should not be afraid of clashes but must not be the ones to start clashes.
But there is a sign of change. Xi reportedly lamented during his Central and South American tour in July that it's really hard to alter the existing international order. He apparently concluded that the U.S. is serious about shifting its diplomatic focus to Asia and he cannot easily change the relations with the superpower.
What led him to the conclusion is Obama's Asian tour in April, during which he confirmed that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty covers the Senkaku Islands and signed a new military cooperation pact with the Philippines. The U.S. is also boosting ties with Vietnam. Xi's provocations have backfired. It was only natural he made slight adjustments to ease tensions with neighbors. Another reason to seek better ties is that China will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Beijing in November.
Seeking a thaw
China is seeking a thaw with Japan. Xi had a secret meeting with visiting former Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda, and allowed Foreign Minister Wang Yi to hold talks with his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida. He also stressed in a speech at the Mongolian parliament that China wants friendly ties with neighboring countries, offering an olive branch to Vietnam. He has turned to what he calls "smile diplomacy."
But Xi still aims to create a new international order. China is taking the initiative to establish the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to increase its influence in the economy first rather than security. The sticking point is the timetable. If China hastily tries to change the status quo by force, it could lead to war and the collapse of the country.
China cites its 2,000-year history when laying territorial claims in the South China Sea, arguing that it started controlling the area during the Han dynasty (206 B.C.-220 A.D.) and gradually consolidated its rule. Asian neighbors are seeing the shadow of imperialism in Xi's attempt to create a new order with China at the top of the pyramid. China will probably maintain its "smile diplomacy" until the APEC summit. The world is watching what steps Xi will take after that.