It's Ahn = South Korea's politics - The Economist

South Korea's politics

 

It's Ahn

 

Sep 19th 2012, 9:20 by D.T. | SEOUL

 

The Economist 

 

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THE worst-kept secret in Korean politics is finally out: Ahn Chul-soo, software entrepreneur and philanthropist, wants to be president. He announced his bid formally at a Salvation Army hall in Seoul on September 19th, consummating months of flirtation with the electorate. He becomes the third and final of the main candidates to declare.

The independent Mr Ahn is popular with young voters, who don’t seem too bothered by his lack of political experience. on matters of policy, he favours greater economic co-operation and dialogue with North Korea, and the expansion of the welfare state. He also seeks to restrict the power of the chaebols, the country’s distinctive, mighty family-run conglomerates. Korea “needs a new economic model”, he announced.

Such ideas are much less radical than they sound. Mr Ahn’s main rivals are promising similar things. Korea is no longer the gung-ho all-growth state it once was. Even the conservative Saenuri Party’s candidate, Park Geun-hye—who espoused Thatcherism and free markets during her previous bid for the presidency—is now a proponent of “economic democratisation”, a catch-phrase for the whole race.

To take on Ms Park directly though, Mr Ahn will first have to deal with main opposition candidate, Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party (DUP), a human-rights lawyer-turned politician. The two look to be standing on similar ground. If both are still around come the election, on December 19th, Ms Park would benefit from a split vote and ought to win handsomely.

Having won all of the DUP’s 13 primaries to claim the party’s candidacy on Sunday, Mr Moon is on a roll. He has overtaken Mr Ahn in recent polls, and a new survey, released on September 18th by Realmeter, a local research firm, shows him beating Ms Park in a two-way race. Mr Ahn’s quick response can be read as an attempt to put a roadblock in front of the Moon bandwagon.

To deny Ms Park an easy triumph, the two men will now have to compete to become the “unified opposition” candidate. At his press conference, Mr Ahn said that such a deal should only happen if the people want it. He says it is “inappropriate” to discuss it at this point.

It will, however, soon become highly appropriate. only three months remain before the election. Each passing day of uncertainty is a gift to Ms Park. But her two possible opponents must refrain from engaging in a full-on dogfight, since they will probably end up joining forces against her later. Cho Kuk, a law professor and prominent supporter of Mr Moon, has been urging the two to hold a quick negotiation and come up with a grand bargain in which one supports the other.

A drawn-out battle for the opinion polls looks more likely. But who would make the eventual sacrifice? Should Mr Moon drop out, the DUP will find itself up a creek. The party already looks weak after having lost April’s parliamentary elections unexpectedly. Conceding to Mr Ahn—especially at a time when all main candidates are offering what used to count as distinctly DUP-ish policies—could reduce them into an irrelevance.

Moreover the support of the DUP candidate would do nothing to alleviate Mr Ahn’s chief weakness—his lack of political experience. Mr Ahn is well-liked. But in the final reckoning, will that be enough to convince a majority that he is capable of shouldering everything that might come the president’s way: an economic crisis, a diplomatic spat, or trouble with North Korea?

Were Mr Ahn to play the kingmaker, on the other hand, the opposition could find plenty of efficiencies to exploit. This is a scenario feared by many of Saenuri’s supporters. Mr Moon, having been chief of staff to a former president, Roh Moo-hyun, cannot be diminished as an amateur. He also has a proper party at his disposal, and a political base.

President Roh was the Marmite of Korean politics: either loved, or hated. But Mr Moon could paint himself as something more than “Roh 2.0”, with the help of his current rival. In return for this, Mr Ahn could perhaps be made prime minister to Mr Moon’s president. Traditionally this role has held only symbolic power, but there is nothing to prevent the creation of a beefed-up premiership.

Ms Park polls consistently, between 40 and 50%. She has unshakable support among the over-60-year-olds, who remember the go-go growth era of her father, the strongmanPark Chung-hee. She has long been dreaming of a triumphant return to the Blue House, the presidential residence where she was raised. Mr Ahn, it is perfectly clear, would like to be the one to beat her to it. But a Moon-Ahn one-two punch would have a better chance of spoiling her dream of a homecoming.

(Picture credit: AFP)