This notion of a second American century may
seem bizarre, given the United States’ obvious domestic troubles — from poor
schools and crumbling infrastructure to mounting debt and low economic growth —
and its external challenges, including terrorism, a rising China, an
antagonistic North Korea that has nuclear weapons and an equally hostile Iran
that appears to want them.
Nevertheless, we could already be in the second
decade of another American century. Here are six reasons:
To start, the United States is and will remain
for some time first among unequals. This country boasts the world’s largest
economy; its annual GDP of almost $16 trillion is nearly one-fourth of global
output. Compare this figure with $7 trillion for China and $6 trillion for
Japan. Per capita GDP in the United States is close to $50,000, somewhere
between six and nine times that of China.
The United States also has the world’s most
capable armed forces. No other country comes close to competing with it on the
modern battlefield. Even with the sequester, core U.S. defense spending of some $500 billion is
greater than that of the next 10
countries combined. The American
qualitative military edge will be around for a long, long time.
Second, there is no peer competitor on the
horizon. Yes, China has been growing fast, and the day will come when its GDP
equals or passes that of the United States. But that day will arrive later than
many forecast, as Chinese growth is
slowing. In addition, China’s ability
to translate its increasing wealth into power and influence is constrained by a
deteriorating natural environment, an enormous and aging population, burgeoning
social needs, and a political system far less dynamic than the economy and
society it seeks to control.
Nor is any other major power in a position to
challenge the United States. Despite a collective economy slightly larger than
that of the United States and a population surpassing 500 million, the European
Union punches far below its weight in the world as a result of its parochialism,
pronounced anti-military culture, and unresolved tensions between nationalism
and the commitment to building a collective union. Europe also faces prolonged
low economic growth.
Japan, meanwhile, is saddled with a large debt
— approximately 200 percent of GDP — while restrictive immigration
policies deny the country an
opportunity not just to increase its population and lower its average age, but
to obtain new ideas and talent. The nation is also limited by political parties
that are more like personal fiefdoms and the burden of a history that makes most
of its neighbors wary of any Japanese reemergence as a political and military
power.
Russia will also continue to be held back by
its politics. It is hobbled by corruption and is more an oligarchy than a democracy, though the
possibility exists for large-scale popular protests, a “Moscow Spring” that
would challenge the legitimacy and durability of the regime. Russia also has a
mostly one-dimensional economy, more influenced by government than markets, that
depends on oil, gas and minerals.
In short, the alleged other great powers are
not all that great. None has the means to overthrow the existing order and, at
least as important, none is committed to doing so. Each is largely preoccupied
with its own economic, social and political problems. This is the third reason
the century could turn out well for Americans.
Fourth, the United States has not acted in a
way that has provoked a direct challenge. Yes, doubts about the wisdom and
legitimacy of U.S. foreign policy are widespread, but they tend to lead more to
denunciations, head-shaking and an absence of cooperation than to outright
resistance. The world’s most powerful countries may not always agree with the
United States, but they do not normally see America as implacably hostile or as
an impediment to their core objectives. Meanwhile, challenges from the likes of
Iran, North Korea and al-Qaeda, while significant, are neither global nor
existential.
The last two reasons the 21st century could
replicate the 20th — America’s unique demographics and the potential for renewed
economic growth — relate to this country’s internal advantages. The gods have
smiled on the United States, providing its citizens with vast stretches of
arable land, plentiful fresh water and bountiful energy reserves. Indeed, those
reserves have recently become more bountiful thanks to technologies that have
dramatically increased .
The U.S. population is large, but not so large
that it is a major burden. More important, the population is relatively balanced
by age. The ratio of working-age people to those too young or too old to work is
better in the United States than almost anywhere else in the developed world,
leaving this country better positioned to deal with its looming social
obligations.
The United States has one other big demographic
advantage: the mix and talent of its society. This is the most open country in
the world, by a long shot. America accepts more than 1 million immigrants a year
on a permanent basis, far more than any other nation. Numerous studies highlight
the positive links between immigration, innovation and entrepreneurship. one
statistic alone — that immigrants established nearly one-fifth of the Fortune
500 companies — speaks volumes.
The final reason to be upbeat about the
prospects for a new American century is the potential to return to high rates of
economic growth. The country’s post-World War II average is slightly above
3 percent, impressive for an advanced economy and well above the current pace.
The United States can get back to this level or even surpass it because of the
world-class quality of much of American higher education, the availability of
capital for business start-ups, a legal system that encourages risk and does not
unduly penalize failure, and a culture of innovation.
There is nothing inevitable, however, about
American sway over this young century. The advantages this country enjoys are
neither permanent nor sufficient to ensure continued primacy.
So, what needs doing? A partial list includes
fixing broken public schools, repairing or replacing aged infrastructure,
modernizing immigration policy, reforming health care, negotiating new trade
accords, lowering corporate taxes, reining in spending on entitlements, and
reducing debt as a share of GDP. Abroad, it includes resisting wars of choice
where the interests at stake are less than vital and where there are
alternatives to the use of force. This would also mean accepting that we cannot
remake other societies in our image.
What stands in the way of the next American
century is American politics. To paraphrase Walter Kelly’s Pogo, we have met the
problem, and we are it. Special interests often crowd out the general national
interest. Partisanship can be healthy, but not when it leads to an inability to
govern and to make difficult choices.
Either we resolve our political dysfunction,
rethink our foreign policy and restore the foundations of American power — and
in the process provide another century of American leadership — or we fail. The
alternative to a U.S.-led 21st century is not an era dominated by China or
anyone else, but rather a chaotic time in which regional and global problems
overwhelm the world’s collective will and ability to meet them.
Americans would not be safe or prosperous in
such a world. one Dark Ages was one too many; the last thing we need is
another.
